Can Eisenkot’s bloc reach 61?

Live estimate for Israel’s 26th Knesset election, 27 Oct 2026. Pre-election polls, updated with Central Elections Committee turnout reports by voter group.

Who forms the government?

first formation round · scenario model

Every simulated Knesset goes through a stylized coalition-bargaining model under three sets of assumptions. The steps are: Netanyahu core, then opposition alone, then + Reservists, then Bennett-side defectors, then Arab external support (with possible opposition dissent), then a Haredi draft deal, then a Likud leadership change. Its priors are subjective scenario guesses, not calibrated.

Paths by scenario

How the odds moved through the day

Seat distributions

share of 20,000 simulations

Build your own coalition

Tick parties to sum their simulated seats (4,000-draw sample; Eisenkot bloc preselected).

Parties

mean seats · 80% range · chance of passing 3.25%

Turnout by voter group

Projected final turnout vs 2022 at the same polling stations. “Relative” is that ratio divided by the national ratio. Groups above 1 count for more of the vote than polls assumed.

National turnout

Final polls (reference: raw average)

Method
  • Prior. The prior is TheMadad’s 24 Oct election-model snapshot: party seat means converted to vote shares. Error scales are calibrated so that, with polls alone, the needle reproduces TheMadad’s published odds: coalition ≥ 61 7.9% (7.86%), opposition ≥ 61 8.8% (8.98%), bloc means 52.6/52.9/13.9, Reservists passing 9.8% (10%), Winter passing 7.3% (7.5%). The raw final-poll average (Channel 14 at half weight) is shown below for reference.
  • Geography. The 2022 results at ~12,500 stations are split into 15 voter groups (votes26.com station classification: Haredi, Arab, Bedouin, settlements, FSU, left and right strongholds…), plus a double-envelope group. Each group’s 2022 party families are mapped to 2026 lists. A proportional swing makes the 2022-turnout national total match the poll average.
  • Turnout signal. For each CEC station report, group turnout is projected to 22:00 and compared with 2022. Groups are reweighted by (relative turnout)α, with α drawn from U(0.35, 1). Polls already capture some of the enthusiasm gap, so the pass-through is partial and uncertain.
  • Uncertainty. Bloc-level poll error σ = 4.0 pts (gov ↔ Eisenkot bloc; calibrated), Arab-total σ = 1.0 pt, party-level noise ∝ √share, plus noise on the turnout projection. After 22:00, exit polls replace the prior (σ = 1.4 pts). Once 5% is counted, votes26’s count nowcast takes over. Seats use Bader–Ofer (D’Hondt) with the 3.25% threshold and the five surplus-vote agreements: Likud–RZP, Shas–UTJ, Together–YB, Yashar–Democrats, Joint List–Ra’am.
  • Eisenkot bloc = Yashar + Together + Yisrael Beiteinu + Democrats, as the TV networks count it. Reservists–NEP and Amcha Yisrael are outside both blocs. Use the coalition builder to add them.
  • Caveats. Turnout only shows who votes, not how. Groups overlap by about 5% of stations. Turnout projections before 18:00 are noisy, and polls have historically understated the right (2015, 2022). Not affiliated with any network.

Data: Central Elections Committee station reports via votes26.com; 2022 results by station group (votes26); model prior from TheMadad; final polls via Wikipedia. An independent hobby model, not affiliated with any of these sources or any network.